Sego against DSK: the die isn't cast
A speech to the boos of the
crowd yesterday in front of 5500 party members.
An article in Le Monde by a respected PS member calling for supporting DSK.
Segolène is in difficulty.
The polls still give her
61% of the votes. Bloggers and comments around the web keep mentioning this
figure. But whose votes? Not party members ones, but the ones of the PS
supporters. Well, only the guys with the card will get to vote. And not even
all of them as you had to register before June 2006 to be able to vote on the
16th. So these figures are just not relevant.
We can also look at other
polls. The ones asking supporters of the right and the left if they would prefer
a duel Sego-Sarko or DSK-Sarko.
Well a majority of supporters of the right would prefer a duel Sarko-Sego... Say
you get to choose your enemy for a fight. Which one are you going to pick, the
strong one of the easier to defeat?
At the end of the day there
are two questions:
1) If DSK is elected will
some of Sego's voters refuse to support candidate DSK?
2) If Segolène is elected
will she be strong enough to fight against the attacks of Sarko's political
machine?
I'm not sure. I wonder if
the whole craze about Segolène could not just fade away in a few days.