Sego against DSK: the die isn't cast

A speech to the boos of the crowd yesterday in front of 5500 party members.
An article in Le Monde by a respected PS member calling for supporting DSK.
Segolène is in difficulty.

The polls still give her 61% of the votes. Bloggers and comments around the web keep mentioning this figure. But whose votes? Not party members ones, but the ones of the PS supporters. Well, only the guys with the card will get to vote. And not even all of them as you had to register before June 2006 to be able to vote on the 16th. So these figures are just not relevant.

We can also look at other polls. The ones asking supporters of the right and the left if they would prefer a duel Sego-Sarko or DSK-Sarko.
Well a majority of supporters of the right would prefer a duel Sarko-Sego... Say you get to choose your enemy for a fight. Which one are you going to pick, the strong one of the easier to defeat?

At the end of the day there are two questions:

1) If DSK is elected will some of Sego's voters refuse to support candidate DSK?

2) If Segolène is elected will she be strong enough to fight against the attacks of Sarko's political machine?

I'm not sure. I wonder if the whole craze about Segolène could not just fade away in a few days.